Tuesday, October 9, 2007

The Global Warming Crisis

Surely everyone is now aware that there is a great deal of concern and discussion about global warming.

Is anyone still seriously questioning that global warming is happening, or that it is largely caused by human activity? UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon thinks not. In his summary of the Sep 2007 UN high-level event on climate change, attended by “heads of state and other top officials from more than 150 countries” (including Stephen Harper), he said “I heard the world's leaders confirm that climate change is indeed happening, and is largely caused by human activity.”
References:
United Nations High-Level Event Webcast. "The Future in Our Hands."
United Nations Environment Program Press Release. "High-Level Event on Climate Change."

Is it really a major problem? So what if it gets a few degrees warmer? So what if species extinction rates rise to 10,000 times the natural rate? In other words, what is the probable consequence of inaction, or too little action too late? Might it lead to an out-and-out collapse of civilization, or extinction of the human species? There isn't the same consensus on this question. Many might shy away from such a question, claiming there isn't a solid scientific basis for an answer. At the same time, there sure doesn't seem to be a science-based consensus that such catastrophic outcomes are implausible. So, if we fail to act decisively now, I guess we'll find out in a few years – but personally, I don't think it's worth the risk. Some of the sources I consider credible, informative, and downright scary include Al Gore's book and movie “An Inconvenient Truth”, the BBC documentary Global Dimming, and the UN Webcast “A Way Forward: Confronting Climate Change”.
References:
Klaus Toepfer, United Nations Under-Secretary General and Executive Director, UNEP. "Editorial."
Climatecrisis.net. An Inconvenient Truth (website)
BBC. "Horizon: Global Dimming."
United Nations High-Level Event Webcast. "The Future in Our Hands."

To get a feeling for how widespread the concern is, search for “global warming” on Google. I get 11.9 million hits! The level of concern varies, of course, from site to site. For instance, globalwarming.org seems to be promoting the message that global warming isn't really that bad or isn't solidly established scientifically, and that if we all ignore the problem it will get better faster. This one doesn't seem to pass the sanity test. I am reminded of Naomi Klein's comments to the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives (Feb 2007) about why the CCPA should be able to succeed with lower funding than right-wing think tanks: “It is much cheaper to convince people that to do good is good, bad – bad; because we know this!”
Reference:
Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives. Naomi Klein videos.

It's not just “alternative” or “left-wing” thinkers that think we've got a big problem, though. In addition to the concern expressed by heads of states at the recent UN high-level event, the Canadian Council of Chief Executives has gone on record as considering climate change to be "the most pressing and daunting issue", and have called for aggressive action including "absolute" emissions cuts.
Reference:
Elizabeth May website. "Green Party welcomes CEOs' call for tough action on climate change"

There's no end of information out there to help you make your decision. As for me, I think the crisis is as serious a threat as we've ever faced, and should be our number one priority. I think it's entirely appropriate to adopt a war-time mentality about this: recognize the threat, mobilize all available resources to combat it, and get everyone working towards the same goal. There are key differences between this situation and war-time, of course. In wartime we often see an abrogation of democratic process, whereas I believe our main hope of winning this "war" lies in making sure the people have an effective voice. In war-time we have human enemies, but to win this “war” we all need to become allies. But the sense of urgency and willingness to sacrifice should be there. The good news is, we may not have to sacrifice much! Mostly, we have to redirect. In the long run, and maybe even in the short, the move to sustainable energy will generate considerable efficiencies and economic activity.

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